James Otigbah on Crisis Management | June 2025
In today’s volatile global climate, we are being reminded of a hard truth: peace is not a given, and stability is a strategy—not a guarantee.
Recent warnings from top EU officials make it clear that the threat of military conflict in Europe is no longer hypothetical. As reported by the Associated Press, a senior European Union official confirmed, “Russia is preparing for a long conflict… It’s a long-term strategy of confrontation with the West.” Europe’s new defence chief echoed this concern in Reuters, stating that “European countries must be ready to face possible aggression from Russia within the next 6 to 8 years.” These aren’t fringe opinions or speculative fears. These are clear signals indicating a strategic shift in global power dynamics—and an urgent call for preparation.
As someone who advises global families and asset holders, I’ve seen a marked rise in a chilling but increasingly relevant question:
“If things really fall apart, where do we go—and how do we protect what we’ve built?”
We all remember the disorientation of early 2020. COVID-19 broke the illusion of control and predictability in global systems. But while the pandemic was a health crisis with global cooperation as part of the solution, the next challenge may not be as unifying. If armed conflict erupts—whether on European soil or beyond—it could fracture alliances, crash digital systems, and severely test the resilience of even the best-prepared institutions.
This brings us to another flashpoint that can’t be ignored.
The Middle East is once again erupting into direct confrontation. The current military exchange between Israel and Iran—involving drone and missile strikes—has exposed the fragility of the region’s security architecture. For the first time in decades, we see open military engagement between two regional powers, shattering long-held assumptions that such hostilities would remain covert or confined to proxies.
This is not just a regional issue!
Every escalation between Israel and Iran affects energy markets, global alliances, and military postures across NATO and the Gulf states. It also serves as a potent reminder: the world is no longer dealing with isolated threats. We are dealing with a convergence of crises—a multi-front risk landscape that could shift dramatically and without warning.
Preparation isn’t panic—it’s common sense.
🔹 1. Build a Contingency Plan for Essentials
Much like in the early COVID era, supply chains can fail. Stock up on clean water, shelf-stable food, first aid supplies, power backups, and analog communication tools. Tangible items you can barter with.
🔹 2. Safeguard Digital Infrastructure
Cyberattacks may be one of the first forms of aggression in modern conflict. Secure important data across multiple storage solutions (cloud, offline, and physical), audit your exposure to third-party digital services, and identify alternatives for key systems.
🔹 3. Cultivate Self-Sufficiency
If external services become unreliable, personal skills and assets become invaluable. Emergency medical training, off-grid energy systems, and food-growing capabilities are no longer niche—they’re prudent.
🔹 4. Plan for Human Volatility
In a sustained crisis, people behave differently. Staff may flee, contracts may evaporate, and communities may fracture. Build systems that don’t depend entirely on others and decentralize operations where feasible. Cross-train yourself and family members for critical functions. Maintain a physical “go-bag” for each family member.
The uncomfortable truth? The next global crisis may not come with warning signs you can act on. If anything, COVID taught us that disruption often arrives faster than expected—and that those who had a plan navigated it far better than those who didn’t.
In this environment, wealth protection means more than asset allocation.
It means Resilience. Foresight. Adaptability.
History does not reward denial—it rewards preparation.
In boardrooms, family offices, and leadership circles, we’re seeing a split: those who are proactively preparing, and those hoping the storm will pass without consequence.
Those with a plan won’t just survive—they’ll lead.
Those without? They may scramble to catch up.
Sources:
In 2018, Excel Security Solutions was contracted by a global family office to conduct what seemed—at the time—like a hypothetical exercise: a doomsday scenario that modelled what would happen to their family, assets, and properties around the world during a global crisis.
Our team built contingency plans for logistics, security, digital infrastructure, and economic breakdowns. Then COVID-19 hit.
What was once theoretical quickly became real. And while not every recommendation was implemented, those that were made a measurable difference. It was a humbling experience, but also an invaluable one. It gave us proof of concept—and revealed the critical gaps that most institutions and families never imagine until it’s too late.
Today, we face a new age of uncertainty—this time not from a virus, but from the convergence of geopolitical volatility, ideological polarization, and financial fragility. War in Europe is once again on the table. The Middle East is destabilizing. Global systems feel brittle. This is not alarmism; this is strategic foresight. And as we’ve learned: those who prepare, lead.
By James Otigbah, Excel Security Solutions
© 2025 Excel Security Solutions • All Rights Reserved